While UConn has been playing lights out in its last two games, feasting against a 16th and 8th seed, here is why I think Purdue has a decent shot at pulling out the upset ... it depends on match ups, defensive “trickeration”, offensive tempo and, again, hitting threes and open shots. Remember, Michigan played UConn exceptionally well at UConn because it did three key things:
1) Michigan players hit their outside shots
2) They set tempo, and
3) Michigan neutralized UConn's interior strength with its 1-3-1 zone
Keys for Purdue
1) LIMITING UCONN'S INTERIOR AND TRANSITION POINTSUConn's front court combine for 36 points a game and pull down 26 rebounds a game. These guys are studs: Thabeet (13.7 and 11), Adrien (14 and 10), and Robinson (8 and 6) combine for 36 points a game and pull down 27 rebounds a game.
These guys are studs. Everyone knows about Thabeet's length (7-3). Adrien is a Jon Brockman type player at 6-7 and 240. Robinson is more like Purdue’s JaJuan Johnson at 6-10 and 225. However, in 33 games UConn has played this year, these three have contributed to exactly 6 points from three point land. The trio is a combined 2 of 22. In addition, these guys have a tough time shooting straight. These guys get most all of their points from interior shooting, put backs and transition points.
This is why UConn has a tough time against zone defenses (e.g. Michigan, Syracuse, Georgetown, Notre Dame). Only one of their starters can hit the three and that's Price. The other four are exceptionally woeful from the outside.
Against UW, Purdue used a bit of “trickeration” in gaining interior advantage by essentially having Hummel play zone. Something like that could be helpful for Purdue again - only have JJ, Hummel, and Moore play off of their man to play a kind of match up zone.
If you keep these guys in front of you, call out screens, and watch for the pick and rolls ... you make UConn take mid range jump shoots. That's this team's weakness - the mid range jump shot ... then Purdue has a chance. There is no way Purdue can shut them down in terms of getting their put backs and muscle moves inside.
2) KRAMER ON AJ PRICE: AJ Price leads the team in scoring, hits 41 percent of his threes. Shutting him down is critical. Kramer will have to, I think, simply concentrate on rebounding and defense, save himself a bit on offense.
3) KEATON GRANT OVER LEWJACK: Starting Grant over Jackson could be important. UConn's Craig Autrie struggles with shooting, hitting 30 percent of his threes and about 35 percent overall. But he's a fantastic free throw shooter. Thus, he gets most of his points in transition, posting up, or via penetration and getting fouled. At 6-3 he would have a 6 inch height advantage over Lew Jack and can easily post up against him. Keaton Grant is a lot more physical than Autrie AND has enough speed to prevent him from penetrating and getting interior looks - if he plays off of him. Grant wouldn't have to worry about his permimeter shooting. Autrie is faster than Grant, but again, it doesn't matter since Autrie is a poor outside shooter. AND Grant can also help out in the middle because he will not have to worry about Autrie's outside shoot.
4) SETTING TEMPO: Turnovers lead to UConn points. Purdue has to take care of the ball, really work that half court offense and slow this thing to a crawl. UConn is a momentum shooting team. If they are running in stride, creating points off of fast breaks, they can't be stopped. BUT if they have to take time shooting and work hard at finding mid range jumpers, if they have to work at defense and offense, this makes them a team that is merely mortal. Let them run wild in transition and tempo - they are truly gods.
5) THREE PT SHOOTING FROM HALF COURT GAME: Slowing the game down and hitting from outside will open up the interior. Without the outside shooting, Purdue won't score. UConn will block many shots if they are set defensively and will limit Purdue to very few second chance points because of their size (6-7, 250; 7-3; and 6-10)
So, IMO, Purdue needs to
1) hit 40 to 50 perent of its three pointers
2) play nearly turnover free basketball
3) limit UConn to less than 10 transition points and limit UConn penetration
4) keep Autrie off the free throw line
5) force Price to shoot a lot of threes (15 or more)
David Lim (MBA, MSW), Coach, Therapist
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